The narrative of Didi Global Inc. (DIDIY) has undergone a metamorphosis that few financial analysts predicted three years ago. Once the centerpiece of a geopolitical tug-of-war and a cautionary tale for Chinese tech IPOs, Didi has spent the intervening years transforming from a distressed asset into a high-efficiency cash engine. As we stand at the threshold of 2026, the latest operational data suggests that Didi is not just recovering—it is entering a phase of unprecedented dominance.
Recent projections from the company indicate that on December 31, 2025, a perfect storm of commuting, New Year’s Eve celebrations, and “Chunyun” (Spring Festival) travel demand will push the platform to a historic peak. Didi predicts that the afternoon peak will begin as early as 3:00 PM, with the highest demand window occurring between 5:00 PM and 7:00 PM. Most strikingly, the company expects domestic ride-hailing demand to exceed 80 million orders in a single day.
For the savvy investor, this 80-million-ride figure is more than a statistic; it is a valuation signal. It represents a level of market penetration and operational resilience that makes its current valuation on the over-the-counter (OTC) market look increasingly like a historical clerical error.
The New Year’s Catalyst: A Structural Shift in Demand
The surge expected for the transition into 2026 is not a one-off anomaly. Didi’s data indicates that between 9:00 AM and 5:00 PM on January 1, 2026, call volumes will remain significantly higher than those seen on New Year’s Day 2025. Specifically, the 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM window is projected to see a year-on-year increase of 18%.
This growth is particularly impressive when one considers the saturation of the Chinese smartphone market. Didi is no longer growing simply because more people have phones; it is growing because it has successfully integrated itself into the “intermodal” transport habits of the Chinese population. Whether it is bridging the “last mile” from a high-speed rail station or serving as the primary transport for the urban middle class during holiday peaks, Didi’s ubiquity is its greatest moat.
When 80 million orders are processed in a 24-hour window, the friction-less nature of Didi’s algorithm becomes its most valuable IP. The ability to manage such a load without a system-wide collapse—while balancing driver incentives and passenger wait times—is a feat of engineering that few companies globally can replicate. This operational excellence is the foundation of our “Strong Buy” recommendation.
The Financial Architecture: Profitability Meets Efficiency
To understand why Didi is undervalued, we must look at the “New Didi” financial model. During its high-growth phase (2015–2020), Didi was characterized by massive subsidies and paper-thin margins. The “New Didi” of 2025 is a lean, profit-focused entity.
In its most recent quarterly filings, Didi has demonstrated a consistent ability to generate positive Adjusted EBITA. The China Mobility segment is now a self-sustaining powerhouse. By reducing the reliance on aggressive consumer coupons and instead focusing on driver retention and AI-driven dispatch efficiency, Didi has managed to expand its take-rate without alienating its user base.
Furthermore, the company’s balance sheet remains remarkably robust. With over $8 billion in cash and short-term investments, Didi possesses a “war chest” that allows it to navigate economic headwinds and invest in future technologies like autonomous driving and electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure. In a high-interest-rate global environment, a tech company that generates its own cash while maintaining a massive cash reserve is a rare find—especially one trading at its current multiples.
Comparing the Giants: The Valuation Disconnect
When we compare Didi Global to its primary Western peer, Uber Technologies, the valuation disconnect becomes glaring. As of late 2025, Uber trades at a significant premium, reflecting its status as a “darling” of the New York Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, Didi, despite having a larger total addressable market (TAM) in China and a more integrated ecosystem, trades at a fraction of Uber’s Price-to-Sales (P/S) and Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiples.
The “China Discount” is a real phenomenon, driven by regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. However, Didi has cleared the most significant regulatory hurdles. Its apps are back in the stores, its data security protocols have been overhauled to meet the most stringent government standards, and it has maintained a cooperative relationship with Chinese regulators. The risk-reward profile has shifted; the “risk” has been largely mitigated, but the “discount” remains.
If Didi were to be valued on par with global mobility peers, its stock price would need to double or even triple from current levels. The 80-million-ride projection for New Year’s Eve is the proof of concept that the “China Discount” is overstaying its welcome.
International Expansion: The Latin American Growth Engine
While the domestic Chinese market provides the stability, Didi’s international operations provide the “alpha” for investors. Didi has quietly become a dominant player in Latin America, particularly in Brazil and Mexico.
By leveraging the lessons learned in the hyper-competitive Chinese market, Didi has been able to out-maneuver local and global competitors in these regions. The company’s international segment has seen revenue growth rates that consistently outpace its domestic core. More importantly, Didi is not just offering rides in these markets; it is building a financial ecosystem. By offering digital payment solutions and credit products to its drivers and riders in Latin America, Didi is evolving into a “Super App” in emerging markets, creating multiple touchpoints for monetization.
This international diversification is a critical hedge. It ensures that Didi’s fortunes are not solely tied to the Chinese macro-economy. An investment in Didi today is an investment in the burgeoning middle class of the Global South.
The Autonomous Future: Data is the New Oil
The long-term bull case for Didi rests on its autonomous driving division, Didi Autonomous Driving. In the race for Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy, data is the most valuable currency. Because Didi operates a network that facilitates billions of trips per year, it possesses a proprietary dataset that is arguably more diverse and voluminous than any of its competitors.
Didi’s approach to autonomous driving is pragmatic. Rather than trying to build a consumer car, it is focused on a “Robotaxi” fleet that can be seamlessly integrated into its existing app. The infrastructure for this is already being laid. Didi’s “K-Brain” (its AI dispatch system) is already capable of managing hybrid fleets of human-driven and autonomous vehicles.
By 2026, we expect Didi to announce significant expansions of its Robotaxi pilot programs in Tier-1 Chinese cities. As the cost of LiDAR and compute power continues to fall, the transition from a human-labor-intensive model to an autonomous-asset-light model will lead to a massive expansion in operating margins. The market is currently pricing Didi’s autonomous driving unit at near-zero value; we believe it is a multi-billion dollar asset in waiting.
The Hong Kong Relisting: The Ultimate Catalyst
The most significant near-term catalyst for Didi is the potential for a formal relisting on a major exchange, most likely the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX). Since its delisting from the NYSE, Didi has been “trapped” in the OTC market, where liquidity is lower and many institutional investors are prohibited from buying.
A Hong Kong listing would solve several problems simultaneously. First, it would provide a massive influx of liquidity as institutional “long-only” funds and mainland Chinese investors (via the Southbound Stock Connect) gain access to the shares. Second, it would provide a standardized valuation framework, likely leading to a rapid re-rating of the stock. Third, it would serve as the final “stamp of approval” from the Chinese financial establishment, signaling that the company is fully rehabilitated.
The 18% projected increase in New Year’s Day call volumes for 2026 is exactly the kind of “growth story” that Didi will want to present to potential investors during a Hong Kong IPO roadshow. The company is timing its operational peaks to coincide with its strategic corporate milestones.
Addressing the Macro Concerns
Critics of Didi often point to the slowing growth of the Chinese economy as a reason to stay away. However, this view ignores the “defensive” nature of mobility. In an era of reduced big-ticket spending (like real estate or luxury cars), high-frequency, low-cost services like ride-hailing tend to remain resilient.
Furthermore, Didi is a primary beneficiary of the “Electric Vehicle Revolution” in China. The Chinese government’s push for green energy has resulted in significant subsidies for EV fleets. Didi’s partnership with GAC Aion and other EV manufacturers allows it to operate a fleet with significantly lower fuel and maintenance costs than Western fleets still reliant on internal combustion engines. This “green edge” is a structural advantage that will protect Didi’s margins even in a stagnant macro environment.
Conclusion: A Generational Entry Point
The financial markets are often slow to recognize a turnaround until the evidence is overwhelming. With the projection of 80 million rides on December 31, 2025, and continued growth into 2026, the evidence for Didi Global’s resurgence has moved from “suggestive” to “definitive.”
We are looking at a company that has:
- Dominant Market Share: Controlling over 70% of the world’s largest ride-hailing market.
- Proven Profitability: Transitioning from a burn-heavy startup to a disciplined, cash-generating machine.
- Untapped Upside: Massive potential in international markets and autonomous technology.
- A Clear Catalyst: An impending relisting that will unlock institutional capital.
At its current OTC price levels, Didi Global is trading at a deep discount to its intrinsic value and its global peers. The market’s lingering fear is the investor’s opportunity. As the 17:00 to 19:00 peak hits on New Year’s Eve and millions of cars begin to move across China, they will be moving on Didi’s platform. Investors who move into the stock now are positioned to ride that same momentum.
The 2026 outlook for Didi is not just positive; it is transformative. For those willing to look past the headlines of 2021 and focus on the data of 2026, Didi Global represents perhaps the most compelling “Buy” in the global tech sector today. The road ahead is clear, the demand is record-breaking, and the valuation gap is ready to be closed.