The financial world was briefly rattled on Christmas Eve by a sophisticated press release claiming that Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL), the powerhouse behind the USDC stablecoin, had launched “CircleMetals”—a platform for tokenizing gold and silver. The report, which even fabricated quotes from CEO Jeremy Allaire, was quickly debunked by Circle as a fraudulent “fake news” attempt to drain user wallets through unverified links.
While such headlines often cause short-term jitters, seasoned investors know that the strength of a financial institution is measured by its response and its underlying fundamentals. Far from being a red flag for the company, this incident highlights the immense brand equity Circle has built; it is now a target for high-level impersonation because it has become the gold standard of regulated digital finance. Currently trading around $82.64, down from its mid-2025 highs, Circle isn’t just a “hold”—it is an undervalued growth engine positioned to dominate the next decade of global payments.
The Valuation Gap: Why the Market is Mispricing CRCL
Since its high-profile IPO in June 2025, Circle’s stock has weathered the typical post-lockup volatility. After peaking at nearly $300 during the initial “hype cycle,” the price has retreated to what analysts now consider a significant “buy-low” zone. With a market capitalization of approximately $19.46 billion, Circle is trading at a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 8.5x—a premium compared to traditional banks, but a bargain for a fintech firm growing revenue at over 70% year-over-year.
The fundamental disconnect lies in how the market views Circle. Many still see it as a “crypto company” vulnerable to market swings. However, Circle’s Q3 2025 earnings tell a different story. The company reported $740 million in revenue, a 66% increase from the previous year. More importantly, it is successfully diversifying its income. While reserve income (interest earned on the assets backing USDC) remains a cornerstone, “Other Revenue” from platform services and developer tools grew 52x year-over-year. This shift suggests that Circle is becoming a vertically integrated “Economic OS,” moving beyond being just a stablecoin issuer.
Dominating the Infrastructure of Global Payments
The real value of Circle isn’t in speculative gold tokens, but in its deepening integration with the traditional financial (TradFi) system. In late 2025, Visa expanded its USDC settlement capabilities to the U.S. market, using Circle’s infrastructure to facilitate 24/7 money movement. This isn’t just a pilot; it’s the plumbing of the future.
USDC’s market share in the stablecoin sector has climbed to 29%, but its “velocity”—the frequency with which it is used for actual transactions—is where it crushes the competition. While Tether (USDT) remains a dominant force in offshore trading, USDC has captured 40% of on-chain transaction volume. In the institutional OTC market, stablecoins now fuel nearly 75% of all trades, with USDC turnover seeing a staggering 29-fold increase this year alone.
| Key Metric (Q3 2025) | Value | YoY Growth |
| Total Revenue | $740 Million | +66% |
| USDC Circulation | $73.7 Billion | +108% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $166 Million | +78% |
| On-Chain Volume | $9.6 Trillion | 6.8x Increase |
Regulatory Clarity: The Circle Advantage
The passage of the GENIUS Act and the implementation of MiCA in Europe have turned Circle’s long-standing obsession with compliance into its greatest competitive moat. While other issuers struggle to adapt to new “fully reserved” requirements, Circle was built for this. Its recent conditional approval for a national trust charter in the U.S. further cements its status as a “regulated-first” entity.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models from several institutional analysts place Circle’s intrinsic value at approximately $112 to $150 per share. At the current price of ~$83, investors are essentially getting a 25% to 45% discount on the leading infrastructure provider of the digital dollar.
Investment Verdict: Strong Buy
The “CircleMetals” hoax was a distraction, but it served as a reminder of Circle’s central role in the ecosystem. The company is approaching profitability faster than its peers, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to grow by over 90% annually as it achieves greater operating leverage.
For investors looking for a high-growth fintech play that bridges the gap between the efficiency of the internet and the safety of regulated banking, Circle (CRCL) is the premier choice. The post-IPO “dust” has settled, the lock-up selling pressure is subsiding, and the fundamentals have never been stronger.
Recommendation: Buy. Target Price: $150.